What are the differences between trading and gambling?
Friday, September 7th, 2007Many people think that trading is similar to gambling. Is this really the case?
For example, let’s take a look at Black Jack. If you start with $10,000 gambling capital, placing bets of $100 per hand and play 100 hands per day, how long will you last? In the game of Black Jack, with Las Vegas Strip rules, a casino has a built-in advantage of 1.5% over the player in the long run. That means that on average, a player will lose $1.5 per any $100 he bets with. After 100 hands, on average he’ll be down $150. Starting with a capital of $10,000 a player would last about 67 gambling days. That is very similar to the previously described trading scenario. In such case I would choose gambling because at least I would be losing my money in a more pleasant environment.
I chose Black Jack for our example because it is the only casino game in which it is possible for a skilled player to increase his odds to such extent as to be able to beat the House in the long run. A skilled counter can obtain advantage of up to 1.5% per hand over the House in the long run. That means that such a player playing 100 hands per day and average hand being $100 could double his gambling capital of $10,000 in less than 50 days. Similar odds apply to trading stocks, with more potential for profit and less chances for being kicked out of a casino. In order to make it work for you, we’ll need to get the odds on your side. Now lets look at how we can extract as much profits from our trades as possible.


